BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Kansas has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Kansas is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 5.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Kansas is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 5.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025105.615
2026105.615
2027105.615
2028105.615
2029105.715

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Morehead3020242000
Lincolnville2120242002
Galesburg2020241967
Solomon1820191982
Melrose1320231967
Dalton1320241968
Dover1320221967
Trading Post1320242000
Covert1220241967
Bucyrus1220242022
Pittsburg1220212000
Le Loup1220212000
Humboldt1120221968
Coldwater1120221969
Seneca1120221967
Longton1120211976
Wellington1020241968
Reece1020242000
Thrall919701967
Chapman919811967
Ashland820211969
Wreford820241967
Buckeye820231967
Grantville820221967
Hollenberg820231969

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.