BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Tennessee has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Tennessee is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 9.9–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.9–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Tennessee is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 9.9–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161022
2027161022
2028161022
2029161022
2030169.922

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt8920251966
Peytonsville7220251966
Jefferson Cty5720111966
Lovell5620191966
Corryton Rd5620191966
Climer5420041967
Big Sandy3820251966
Tibbs3520251966
Mt Olive3520241966
Mansfield3420251966
Collinwood3320251966
Tullahoma3220151967
Whiteville2820251966
Campbellsville2820191966
Brownsville2720251966
Glen2720251966
Moscow2620251966
White House2620191966
Petersburg2520191966
Tiptonville2020251966
Indian Mound2019981966
Pawpaw1620121966
Wrigley1520221966
Bradyville1520211966
Union Hill1520241967

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.