BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Tennessee has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Tennessee is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.7–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Tennessee is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161022
2026161022
20271610.021
2028169.821
2029159.721

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt7320241966
Peytonsville6920241966
Jefferson Cty5720111966
Lovell5620191966
Corryton Rd5620191966
Climer5420041967
Tibbs4120241966
Brownsville3620241966
Collinwood3620241966
Mt Olive3520241966
Whiteville3220241966
Tullahoma3220151967
Big Sandy3020241966
Mansfield3020241966
Glen3020241966
Campbellsville2820191966
Moscow2720241966
White House2620191966
Petersburg2520191966
Indian Mound2019981966
Pawpaw1620121966
Wrigley1520221966
Bradyville1520211966
Union Hill1520241967
Red Bank1519781966

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.