BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Pennsylvania has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.9–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.9–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gatchelville3419901972
Labott3419831966
Aspers2519891968
Needmore2319911966
Pottstown2219871966
West Grove2219961966
Schaefferstown 22220252002
Jacobus2220251986
Drehersville 21820252000
Clear Spring1720251966
Shrewsbury1720231991
Ephrata1619881969
Middletown1620251973
Quakertown1619891970
Stoneybreak1620251992
Doe Run1520251969
Brick Tavern1520251990
Plesant Grov1420241966
Millville1220251969
Mt Gretna1120001966
Mars1120251993
Jeannette1120231979
Mount Joy1120251978
Brunnerville 21020252010
Bendersville1020241990

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.