BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Texas has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
246Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Texas: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 24–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 24–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025382650
2026382550
2027372549
2028362449
2029362448

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hondo15720241969
Millett 212720242013
Three Rivers11120241994
Valentine10619871969
Millett10320121995
Mirando City9820241969
George West9220241967
Pecos9220172017
Schroeder9019971967
Pumpville8920242006
Rhome8820241967
Creedmore8820141994
Devils R Cyn8820241994
Oakwood8719951967
Encinal8520101969
Georgetown8519851967
Zapata8419871967
San Ygnacio8419851967
Casa Piedra8320231986
Ft. Davis8320232004
Langtry8220001994
Cavasara Cr.8120231995
Raymondville7920241969
Eldorado7920231975
Chandler7720041968

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.