BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Utah has surged: up 536% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+536%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has surged in Utah: up 536% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Utah is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.3–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Utah is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.3–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.51.25.9
20273.61.25.9
20283.61.26.0
20293.61.36.0
20303.71.36.1

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen Canyon2620251991
Blanding2520251987
Iron Springs1520231980
Gandy1420151997
Escalante1420251998
Desert View1220251987
Glen Canyon1220231993
Westwater1220251997
Jensen1120251992
Wellington 31020252012
Wellington1020021997
Hatch920251994
Oak City820241972
Aneth820241987
Lake Powell820091993
Iron Springs 2820252024
Green River820161997
Castle Dale720241996
Canyon Rims720251998
Wellington 2720112004
Wendover620111986
Delta620251987
Shivwitz620251992
Jericho Junction620251997
Tule Valley620131999

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.