BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Utah has surged: up 572% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+572%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has surged in Utah: up 572% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 1.3–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 1.3–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.51.25.9
20263.61.26.0
20273.61.26.0
20283.71.36.1
20293.71.36.1

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen Canyon2520241991
Shivwitz2420241992
Iron Springs 22420242024
Iron Springs1520231980
Gandy1420151997
Escalante1320241998
Glen Canyon1220231993
Wellington1020021997
Westwater1020241997
Wellington 3920242012
Promontory920241969
Beryl920241987
Blanding920241987
Oak City820241972
Aneth820241987
Moquith Mtn820241987
Lake Powell820091993
Green River820161997
Desert View720241987
Jensen720241992
Castle Dale720241996
Wellington 2720112004
Wendover620111986
Tule Valley620131999
Wah Wah520041989

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.