BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Nebraska has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has collapsed in Nebraska: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 231% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+231%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 231% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.000.68
20270.240.000.67
20280.230.000.67
20290.230.000.66
20300.220.000.66

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty1020031967
Liberty 2520072004
Berwyn 2420212016
Holbrook320231970
Stratton320241980
Seward219901970
Sumner220082008
Gretna219911972
Murray Lake220182007
Julian120031970
Johnson120251967
Belvidere120061967
Kenesaw120181979
Kearney120011979
Bartley119861967
Irvington120062006
Bartlett119701968
Petersburg119691969
Almeria119871976
Paxton120121967
Dalton120241970
Eagle Creek119761967
Midway119751975
Kennedy120092001
Table120051975

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.