BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Tennessee has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Tennessee: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Tennessee is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±410%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±410%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Tennessee is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±410%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.005.2
20260.000.005.2
20270.000.005.2
20280.000.005.2
20290.000.005.2

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pawpaw3420121966
Climer1420041967
Tibbs1220241966
Indian Mound1119981966
Pawpaw 2920232013
Mansfield820241966
Big Sandy620241966
Tullahoma620151967
Humboldt520241966
Corryton Rd520011966
Walland519891966
Fish Springs519951966
Brownsville420241966
Peytonsville420241966
Red Bank419781966
Jefferson Cty420061966
Mecca419951994
Tiptonville320231966
Trenton320231966
Soddy319811967
Mt Olive320151966
Cades Cove320191989
Jones Gap320151982
Indian Mound 2320232004
Silerton220241966

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.