BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Louisiana has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Louisiana: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Louisiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±745.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±745.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Louisiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±745.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.008.6
20260.000.008.6
20270.000.008.6
20280.000.008.6
20290.000.008.6

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mamou6819821967
Fort Polk4619751967
Chatham4619751967
Brousville3020241998
Derry1819891967
Goodwill1320122005
Keystone1220131967
Bickham1020241972
Many1019921989
Freetown920191967
Maurice820241988
Natchez820241992
Morgan City820222011
Cypress719871967
Fillmore719891968
Pine Prairie719961995
Easton519901967
Natchitoches519911987
Marion419961988
Slidell419881984
Grayson420182005
Port Allen420242000
Turkey Creek419981998
Creole319871967
Hackberry 2320242019

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.