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Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Georgia

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Georgia has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Georgia: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Georgia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 8.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±180.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±180.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Georgia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 8.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±180.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0014
20260.000.0014
20270.000.0014
20280.000.0014
20290.000.0014

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boston4620241975
Newton4020241975
Waycross3619841970
Workmore3520191978
Fitzgerald3220241966
Bethany3220242012
Douglas2719841978
Needmore2619831977
Okefenokee2219921974
Cuthbert2120241967
Headlight2020242011
Cotton1820241972
Rentz1720241977
White Hill1720242005
Owensboro1720242010
Fowlstown1620161967
Tarver1620241991
Doles1520221975
Pitts1520241977
Thornton Road1520242005
Shiloh1520242012
Coffee Co1420241986
Weber1420242006
Lyons1319941966
Jacksonboro1320241967

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.