BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in South Carolina has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in South Carolina: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in South Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±407.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±407.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in South Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±407.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.009.5
20260.000.009.5
20270.000.009.5
20280.000.009.5
20290.000.009.5

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Johns Isle5219791966
Boykin Ml Pd4719681966
Boiling Spgs2819791967
Pendleton2619761966
Sandhills2220241994
Landrum1919921972
Nixonville1619951987
Kingstree1620102010
Little Mtn1019881966
Rome920241967
Salem Xrd920191982
New Holland820241967
Adams Run820241988
Dillon620211970
Owings620041992
Greenwood620191998
Bennettsville620171998
Olar620191998
Cauthens Xrd620211982
Holly Hill520241972
Foreston520211966
Pinewood520191998
Chesnee520151992
New Ellenton420232010
Ward420212017

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.