BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Indiana has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Indiana: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Indiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Indiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0013
20260.000.0013
20270.000.0013
20280.000.0013
20290.000.0013

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newberry4320241999
Washington2720241987
New Castle2320242002
Brazil1920241966
Kankakee Sands1520242000
Indian Spgs1420241982
Scottsburg1420241982
New Phila1320241982
Pimento1120241981
Jamestown920241986
Witts Station820242000
Shelbyville720241983
Montpelier720242018
Cross Plains720241999
Knox620241981
Frankfort620221999
Maplewood620052000
Spencer520231967
Clear Spring520241981
Rensselaer520241999
Wallace520241999
Cyprss520241999
Tipton419911966
Evansville420221966
New Brunswick420242024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.