BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Connecticut has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Connecticut: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Connecticut is projected to fall about 100% by 2006 — from 0.13 in 2001 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±277.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2006TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2006 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±277.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Connecticut is projected to fall about 100% by 2006 — from 0.13 in 2001 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±277.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662006
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20020.040.001.8
20030.000.001.8
20040.000.001.8
20050.000.001.8
20060.000.001.8

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Uncasville319931973
Mystic119951973
E Hartland119901968
Buckingham119911966
Woodstock119941968
Westbrook119891972
Willimantic120011968
No Woodbury119981972
Danbury119751974
Long Hill119741974
Mid Haddam119951974

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.