BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Kentucky has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Kentucky: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Kentucky is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Kentucky is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.0011
20260.000.0011
20270.000.0011
20280.000.0011
20290.000.0011

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boxville4419831966
Hudson2720241966
Daniel Boone2719881966
Paintsville2019951983
Riverqueen1720242007
Keysburg1520241968
Cedar Grove1420241966
Gatewood1420191966
Staffordsvil1419971996
Sulphur Lick1220241966
Canton1120241967
Bardwell1120031967
Iron Bridge1019981966
Goshen919991966
Gesling919731969
Hodgenville820031967
Buena Vista820171966
Shiloh720231967
Johnsonville720211966
East Union720221966
Bays Fork720191999
Levee619821966
Eastview620241967
Joy620231966
Plum620241966

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.