BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Florida

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Florida has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has fallen sharply in Florida: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.007.5
20260.230.007.0
20270.000.006.8
20280.000.006.8
20290.000.006.8

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broward5219731966
Webb4420241990
Salvista3419791967
Alturas3319861971
Blountstown3220241966
Babcock Rnch3019901988
Broad Branch2720241967
Telogia2619851968
Myakka Head2520111966
Chassahowitz2320241996
Gardner2119991987
Palmdale1920231987
Nixon1919861985
Lovedale1920111987
Ft Lonesome1820241967
Blackwater1820241987
Betts1820241987
Clewiston1820232015
Dowling Park1620231987
Bristol1620231986
Ridge Harbor1620241991
Kenansville1520241967
Citrus1520242010
Pennywash Cr1420241987
Sandy 21420242017

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.