BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Florida

All statesGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Florida has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has fallen sharply in Florida: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 8.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 8.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.740.007.7
20270.240.007.2
20280.000.006.9
20290.000.006.9
20300.000.006.9

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blountstown6220251966
Broward5219731966
Salvista3419791967
Webb3420251990
Alturas3319861971
Miccosukee3220251966
Broad Branch3020251967
Babcock Rnch3019901988
Telogia2619851968
Myakka Head2520111966
Blackwater2520251987
Gardner2119991987
Palmdale1920231987
Nixon1919861985
Lovedale1920111987
Clewiston1820232015
Ridge Harbor1820251991
Bristol1620231986
Citrus1620252010
Dowling Park1520251987
Chassahowitz1520251996
Pennywash Cr1420241987
Eglin A.F.B.1420111995
St Lucie1320251987
Mabel1220111966

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.