BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Kansas has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Bobwhite in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Kansas is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 8.6–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.6–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Kansas is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 8.6–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025239.737
2026239.437
2027239.136
2028228.936
2029228.636

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert12620241967
Kanopolis12520241967
Thrall7619701967
Ash Valley5620192000
Logan5320221967
Barclay4920241967
Jewell 24720242006
Hanover4620231969
Jamestown4620242000
Coats4020241967
Solomon4020191982
Ashland3520211969
Susank3520222000
Wreford3420241967
Reece3320242000
Minneapolis3220191967
Dalton3120241968
Hays3120141967
Humboldt3020221968
Jewell3020051967
Missler3020191975
Hollenberg2920231969
Morehead2920242000
Galesburg2720241967
Phillipsburg2720221967

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.