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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Kansas has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Bobwhite in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Kansas is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 9.0–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.0–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Kansas is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 9.0–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241037
2027249.837
2028239.537
2029239.337
2030239.036

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanopolis13120251967
Covert9320251967
Thrall7619701967
Barclay6520251967
Ash Valley5620192000
Jewell 25320252006
Logan4920251967
Galesburg4720251967
Dalton4620251968
Reece4420252000
Jamestown4020252000
Plymell3820252000
Hanover3720251969
Ashland3520211969
Susank3520222000
Wreford3420241967
Albert3420251967
Minneapolis3220191967
Phillipsburg3220251967
Hays3120141967
Morehead3120252000
Humboldt3020221968
Jewell3020051967
Missler3020191975
Hollenberg2920251969

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.