BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in New York

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in New York has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in New York: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2974.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2974.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2974.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.000.000.54
20170.000.000.54
20180.000.000.54
20190.000.000.54
20200.000.000.54

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Manorville919951966
Middletown419691969
Lisle219681968
E Newark219751970
Macdougall219951991
Clinton219931983
Argyle219771976
Westhampton120061967
Huntington119861966
Jones Beach119951966
Hauppauge119901966
Bedford119691969
Rhinebeck119961967
Oxford 2119791979
Westbrookvle119791967
Mt Hope119701967
Petersburg119701970
Cooperstown119751975
Cobleskill119691969
Laurens120152015
Whitney Pt120042004
Coventryvile120071992
Corbettsvile119681968
Oneonta119991999
Romulus119721972

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.