BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Nebraska has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Bobwhite in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Nebraska is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 0.02–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Nebraska is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 0.02–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.60.3615
20267.50.2815
20277.40.1915
20287.30.1015
20297.20.0214

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murdock7120242018
Hendley4720242018
Humboldt4620242018
Hampton3720242018
Bartley3320241967
Gretna 23020242019
Surprise2920241967
Johnson2520241967
Tilden2120242019
Berwyn1920101993
Holbrook1820241969
Liberty 31820242009
Liberty 21720072004
Kenesaw1520241967
Petersburg1420231970
Brady1420241980
Boelus1420222018
Sumner1220241967
Lyons1220242021
Seward1120241967
Sparta1120211967
Culbertson1120242018
Belvidere1020241967
Paxton1020161967
Stratton920241975

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.