BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Nebraska has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Bobwhite in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Nebraska is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 0.27–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Nebraska is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 0.27–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.80.5815
20277.80.5015
20287.70.4215
20297.60.3515
20307.50.2715

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murdock8820252018
Hampton5920252018
Brady5020251980
Culbertson4720252018
Humboldt4620252018
Surprise3720251967
Bartley3620251967
Hendley3620252018
Gretna 23420252019
Tilden2720252019
Liberty 32720252009
Johnson2420251967
Belvidere2320251967
Madison2220252019
Stratton1920251975
Berwyn1920101993
Kenesaw1820251967
Holbrook1820251969
Lyons1820252021
Liberty 21720072004
Petersburg1520251970
Seward1420251967
Boelus1420222018
Sparta1320251967
Table1120251973

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.