BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025162.630
2026151.929
2027151.128
2028140.4528
2029130.0027

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns15919941994
Ft Sill West13719941994
Woodward9020241992
Wakita8920161967
Grimes8620241967
Phroso7520241991
Cookietown7320061968
Chester7119881967
Rosston7120181967
Erick6520241969
Ft Sill East6119941994
Wichita Mtns East5220222004
Cooperton4920241992
Jet4720241992
Clear Lake4720241992
Colony4519951995
Reed4220191968
Pushmataha4020231994
Loco3919851967
Barnsdall3919771967
Hollis3920241993
Elgin3820161994
Hooker3820241992
Ardmore3320091967
Tegarden3220161967

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.