BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026172.531
2027161.830
2028151.230
2029150.4929
2030140.0028

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns15919941994
Ft Sill West13719941994
Grimes13220251967
Wichita Mts West9020252004
Wakita8920161967
Woodward8820251992
Lookout8020251967
Clear Lake7620251992
Wichita Mtns East7620252004
Cookietown7320061968
Phroso7120251991
Chester7119881967
Rosston7120181967
Hollis6820251993
Erick6520241969
Cooperton6520251992
Ft Sill East6119941994
Jet4720241992
Colony4519951995
Reed4220191968
Pushmataha4020231994
Loco3919851967
Barnsdall3919771967
Elgin3820161994
Tegarden3220161967

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.