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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Alabama has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Alabama: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Alabama is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±400.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±400.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Alabama is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±400.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.009.4
20270.000.009.4
20280.000.009.4
20290.000.009.4
20300.000.009.4

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Foley7219841966
Dearmanville4819831966
Summitt1719811966
Grangeburg1720241966
Mclellan1720251966
Fairview1720251989
Childersburg1719991985
Borden Sprng1619981993
Bay Minette1520251996
Elamville1420251984
Latham1320001966
Escatawpa1320231983
Castleberry1220251966
Hillsboro1119961966
Dawson1119981966
Dauphin Is1119901966
Georgetown1120251994
Mt. Gilead1020251993
Beatrice820211966
Citronelle820231997
Madrid720231994
Lakeview720251999
Harrell620251968
Bon Secour620231993
Perdido620252021

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.