BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in North Carolina has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in North Carolina: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in North Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±369.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±369.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in North Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±369.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.009.5
20260.000.009.5
20270.000.009.5
20280.000.009.5
20290.000.009.5

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grandy5219751971
Mashoes4919821971
Beargrass3319811966
Shallotte2519911966
Cherryville2319681966
Jarvisburg2219991992
Fairmont2119811968
Rhems1719931990
Ernul1720092001
Arapahoe1419951966
Jonas Ridge1419711968
Congleton1420242001
Sheep Ridge1320241994
Milltail Cr1220241992
South. Pines1219961995
Mattamuskeet1120211998
California1020131972
Montague1020241990
Raeford1020241990
Washington1020242001
Speed820241966
Craven Gap819751969
Rowland820241990
California 2820242014
Pinetops820241997

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.