BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in New Jersey has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in New Jersey: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9351.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9351.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9351.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.006.5
20240.000.006.5
20250.000.006.5
20260.000.006.5
20270.000.006.5

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ancora4019771966
Deepwater3919771969
Villas1519811979
Masonville1019701966
Del Haven1019911991
Clarksville619911969
Mt Misery519881976
Woodbury Hgt420011967
Bennett Mill320001966
Croton319861981
Roosevelt320181986
Six Points220111978
Toms River219941966
Midvale219731971
Kemah Lake220102010
Pottersville220181981
Friendship219991977
Greenwich120131966
Albion120221966
Sandbrook120181980
Holmansville119961969
New Bedford120061969
Robbinsville119781972
Hope119771977
Bloomsbury119941983

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.