BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Michigan has collapsed: down 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-100%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Michigan: down 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14862.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14862.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14862.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.000.005.4
20200.000.005.4
20210.000.005.4
20220.000.005.4
20230.000.005.4

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Lyons719921966
Maple Rapids620001987
North Branch619991974
Hamburg520011981
Allegan Wma320001993
Richmond320031999
Ola319951974
Bell Oak320081966
Deckerville320071980
Oberlin219921987
No Bradley219781974
Pettysville219791969
Drayton Plns219871973
Adair219951974
Hungerford119921992
Belding 2120042004
New Buffalo119971995
Cunard120052005
Almena120052003
Scottville119941973
Big Blue Lk119931993
Lawrence120071969
Bravo119891974
New Troy120001971
Lake City119851985

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.