BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Texas has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
213Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Texas: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.0017
20261.50.0016
20270.620.0015
20280.000.0014
20290.000.0014

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skellytown12920241994
Goliad Prairie9820162004
Hackberry8020241978
Weinert7519941969
Clarendon7020241968
Mirando City6720241969
Rachal6620231967
E Georgetown5419791967
Georgetown5319851967
Randado5120241967
San Ygnacio5019851967
George West4920241967
Catarina4920101970
Plains4820241968
Lakeview4820241995
Dilley4720242018
Devils R Cyn4720241994
Agua Nueva4620231969
Comstock4620231969
Loyola Beach 24420242010
Brite4120241994
Millett 24120242013
Fitzhugh4019831969
Girard4020231994
Hawley3820241994

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.