BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Texas

All statesGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Texas has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
215Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has fallen sharply in Texas: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.20.0016
20271.30.0016
20280.500.0015
20290.000.0014
20300.000.0014

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goliad Prairie9820162004
Rachal8920251967
Hackberry8020241978
Weinert7519941969
Girard7420251994
Loyola Beach 27420252010
George West7320251967
Booker7220251975
San Pedro7120251996
Clarendon7020241968
Skellytown7020251994
Childress6820251969
Williams6620251996
Lakeview6220251995
Rock Island6020251967
E Georgetown5419791967
Randado5320251967
Georgetown5319851967
Silver5220252002
San Ygnacio5019851967
Miami5020251975
Catarina4920101970
Agua Nueva4620231969
Millett 24120242013
Fitzhugh4019831969

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.