BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Massachusetts has collapsed: down 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-100%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Massachusetts: down 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 100% by 2022 — from 0.05 in 2017 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6411.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6411.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 100% by 2022 — from 0.05 in 2017 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6411.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.000.005.5
20190.000.005.5
20200.000.005.5
20210.000.005.5
20220.000.005.5

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chilmark1719831969
Marion519961966
Wellfleet420051966
Cape Cod Ns419991989
Warren319831978
Newburyport219881967
S Barre219861970
E Dennis120151967
Prattville120071966
Brockton119931967
N Oxford119741971
Mansfield119941968
E Pepperell119871985
Belchertown119901973
N Orange119931993
Chesterfield119991999
Cheshire119711971
Pittsfield119811974
Gay Head120171996

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.