BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Mississippi: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±781.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±781.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±781.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.009.9
20260.000.009.9
20270.000.009.9
20280.000.009.9
20290.000.009.9

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walthall7019871970
Diberville5119871979
Scooba3819821967
Fontainbleau2419781966
Poplarville2219781972
Mt Carmel1720161974
Neely1720121974
Tchula1619751970
Scooba 21619871983
Olive Branch1520011966
Commerce1019931966
Waynesboro920101966
Utica819951966
Sandy Creek620001993
Embry620241988
Necaise620221982
Dundee520221970
Duffee520081973
Shelby520242009
Trace North520182008
Lake Mary419901974
Columbia420181969
Cybur420191966
De Soto420192008
Water Valley320152015

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.