BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Arkansas has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Arkansas: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Arkansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±313.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±313.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Arkansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±313.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.007.6
20260.000.007.6
20270.000.007.6
20280.000.007.6
20290.000.007.6

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fulton1720241967
West Tyler1319841967
Crows1119911967
Hope920001967
Zion920241967
Ramsey819971967
Poyen820071967
Russell820212010
Princeton820211998
Saffell720191967
Four Lakes720011994
Nance720241992
Whitton619911967
Dry Fork 2620242024
Augusta520011967
Hatfield 2520242017
Dry Fork520232000
Farwell420182010
Ravenden Springs420152010
Marshall420212011
Lockesburg420182015
Princeton 2420222022
Hollywood320241967
Blakely319991968
Dell320242010

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.