BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Ohio has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Ohio: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3736.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3736.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3736.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0014
20260.000.0014
20270.000.0014
20280.000.0014
20290.000.0014

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harveysburg3119961966
Darrtown1320211966
Wilmington1319961966
Tecumseh1319821966
Port William1020241997
Strongsville919761966
Greasy Ridge719911966
Napoleon620021966
Coal Run619891966
W Carrollton420131989
Westerville419831966
New Somerset419931966
Dunlap419881966
Wilgus420031992
Wayland320011992
Kalida320041966
Troy319961966
Kenton320131966
Meadowbrook319971966
Cuba320241992
Xenia320181966
Ash Ridge320211992
Rome320241966
Scioto Furn320061992
Wayne N.F.220022002

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.