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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Virginia has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Virginia: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±630.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±630.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±630.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0011
20270.000.0011
20280.000.0011
20290.000.0011
20300.000.0011

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Backbay3219741966
Branchville3120241966
Waverly2519871967
Ft Pickett N2319951993
Newville1720241988
Mannboro1520251967
Ivanhoe1519681966
Newsoms1520241967
Wylliesburg1320191971
Ft Pickett S1219951993
Clinchport1119781967
Gladys1020251994
Concord920241967
Cornland920141975
Truhart920241996
Newbern819821968
Surry820251977
Church Road720251966
Moran620251996
White Stone520251966
Stickleyvill519901975
Marion519821976
Finchley520211994
Carters Brdg 2520252021
Churchville420161966

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.