BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in New Mexico has surged: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+79%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has surged in New Mexico: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in New Mexico is projected to rise about 106% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+106%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in New Mexico is projected to rise about 106% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.002.3
20261.00.002.3
20271.00.002.3
20281.00.002.3
20291.00.002.3

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clovis1520241993
Pastura420162016
Pep420241992
Floyd420191969
Hobbs320241994
Bitter Lake220161994
Caprock220191977
Sedan220212009
San Simon120191982
Grenville120082001
Sabinoso120161990
Cooley Lake120241969
Variadero120211998
Logan120171992
Lakewood120131991
Rosebud120111994

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.