BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+59%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in New Mexico is projected to rise about 324% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+324%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±217.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in New Mexico is projected to rise about 324% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.960.002.3
20270.960.002.3
20280.960.002.3
20290.960.002.3
20300.960.002.3

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clovis1520241993
Pastura420162016
Pep420241992
Hobbs420251994
Sedan320252009
Bitter Lake220161994
Cooley Lake220251969
Caprock220191977
San Simon120191982
Grenville120082001
Sabinoso120161990
Floyd120251969
Variadero120211998
Logan120171992
Lakewood120131991
Rosebud120111994

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.