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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Missouri has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Bobwhite Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Missouri: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Missouri is projected to fall about 85% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-85%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Missouri is projected to fall about 85% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.20.0017
20274.30.0016
20283.50.0015
20292.60.0015
20301.80.0014

Northern Bobwhite Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bolckow6519921967
Hamilton6219851972
Cole Camp6019901971
New Hampton5720252014
Sni Mills5119901967
Stet5119951972
Warren4819841967
Mcfall4820251994
Reeds4720251974
Elmo4520252016
Cameron4020251986
Trenton3720251967
Norborne3520232006
Frankford3420251985
Kennett3320252015
Emden3220242017
Watson3020251991
Danville2920251967
Kahoka2719981967
Washington2419771967
Huntsville2420251967
Millwood2420251999
Madison2320241971
Clementine2220021974
Kirksville1920251994

Northern Bobwhite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.