BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite Population Analysis

AccipitridaeBirds of preyIctinia mississippiensis

Mississippi Kite has surged: up 230% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+230%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
684RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Mississippi Kite

The Mississippi Kite (Ictinia mississippiensis) is a North American member of the Hawks, Eagles & Kites (Accipitridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
17.5–39.5 in long (45–100 cm) — a medium to large raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 684 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 20 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Accipitridae · Birds of prey

Notable Mississippi Kite TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in surveyed states: up 230% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.17–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.17–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.160.28
20270.230.160.29
20280.230.170.29
20290.230.170.29
20300.230.170.30

Where the Mississippi Kite Is Detected

BBS routes recording Mississippi Kite, sized by most recent count.

Mississippi Kite Population Trend by State

Mississippi Kite population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama25×197165
Arizonainsufficient datan/a2
Arkansas+150%196939
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a2
Florida+511%196851
Georgia+353%197774
Illinois+420%199413
Kansas+150%196924
Kentucky+85%19806
Louisiana+701%196981
Marylandinsufficient datan/a4
Mississippi+394%197155
Missouri+11%19709
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a4
North Carolina+864%199638
Oklahoma+21%196957
South Carolina18×198828
Tennessee28×197714
Texas+129%1969111
Virginia+56%19917

Mississippi Kite Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Mississippi Kite population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Shortgrass Prairie-69%196928
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-38%196960
Oaks and Prairies11×197250
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+201%200814
Central Hardwoods+615%199022
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas21×197086
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+268%196964
Southeastern Coastal Plain20×1968272
Appalachian Mountains22×20097
Piedmont+104%198429
Peninsular Florida+441%198714
Gulf Coastal Prairie+414%197624

Mississippi Kite Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 230% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.