BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite

AccipitridaeBirds of preyIctinia mississippiensis

Mississippi Kite has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+202%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
663RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Mississippi Kite

The Mississippi Kite (Ictinia mississippiensis) is a North American member of the Hawks, Eagles & Kites (Accipitridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
17.5–39.5 in long (45–100 cm) — a medium to large raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 663 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 20 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Accipitridae · Birds of prey

Notable Mississippi Kite TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in surveyed states: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.17–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.17–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.160.27
20260.220.160.28
20270.220.160.28
20280.220.160.28
20290.230.170.28

Where the Mississippi Kite Is Detected

BBS routes recording Mississippi Kite, sized by most recent count.

Mississippi Kite Population Trend by State

Mississippi Kite population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama14×197163
Arizonainsufficient datan/a2
Arkansas+183%196938
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a1
Florida+585%196850
Georgia+272%197773
Illinois+348%199411
Kansas+95%196924
Kentucky+85%19806
Louisiana+700%196981
Marylandinsufficient datan/a4
Mississippi+474%197155
Missouri-20%19708
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a4
North Carolina11×199636
Oklahoma-4%196954
South Carolina15×198826
Tennessee19×197714
Texas+95%1969106
Virginia+56%19917

Mississippi Kite Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Mississippi Kite population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Shortgrass Prairie-57%196927
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-40%196960
Oaks and Prairies+676%197248
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+414%200813
Central Hardwoods+451%199020
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas15×197082
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+287%196963
Southeastern Coastal Plain19×1968266
Piedmont+99%198428
Peninsular Florida+116%198713
Gulf Coastal Prairie+526%197623

Mississippi Kite Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 202% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.