BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+116%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Mississippi Kite In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.14
20260.070.000.14
20270.070.000.15
20280.070.000.15
20290.080.000.15

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. OliveFLORIDA42024
MicanopyFLORIDA21990
Ft MccoyFLORIDA22013
GoetheFLORIDA22024
RomeoFLORIDA12019
St AugustineFLORIDA11973
BelmoreFLORIDA12022
DeanvilleFLORIDA12007
FlemingtonFLORIDA11995
Island GroveFLORIDA12023
Mabel 2FLORIDA12016
CroomFLORIDA12024
CitrusFLORIDA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.