BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 441% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+441%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mississippi Kite in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Mississippi Kite In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.27
20270.110.000.27
20280.120.000.27
20290.120.000.27
20300.120.000.28

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CroomFLORIDA72025
Island GroveFLORIDA52025
MicanopyFLORIDA21990
Ft MccoyFLORIDA22013
Mt. OliveFLORIDA22025
GoetheFLORIDA22024
RomeoFLORIDA12019
St AugustineFLORIDA11973
BelmoreFLORIDA12022
DeanvilleFLORIDA12007
FlemingtonFLORIDA11995
NobletonFLORIDA12025
Mabel 2FLORIDA12016
CitrusFLORIDA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.