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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Florida

All statesBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Florida has surged: up 511% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+511%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Florida: up 511% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Florida is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.19–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Florida is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.19–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.150.83
20270.500.170.84
20280.510.170.85
20290.520.180.86
20300.530.190.87

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seminole Hills 21920222002
Croom720252003
Apalachicola520151992
Bristol520231988
Island Grove520252002
Hilliard420252007
Callahan420241992
Oak Grove 2420252017
Laurel Hill320252010
Betts320251987
Hixtown Swmp320251987
Dowling Park320251988
Covington220191994
Micanopy219901986
Doctors Inlet 2220182017
Goethe220242012
Eglin A.F.B.220111995
Mt. Olive220252012
Bloxham220251994
Alligator Pt220252011
Ft Mccoy220131992
Oak Grove120101972
Ft Waltn Bch120112005
Mossy Head120111966
Blountstown120251966

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradogeorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.