BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Florida has surged: up 585% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+585%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Florida: up 585% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Florida is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.17–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Florida is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.17–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.460.130.79
20260.470.140.80
20270.480.150.81
20280.490.160.82
20290.500.170.83

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seminole Hills 21920222002
Dowling Park1220191988
Hilliard1020242007
Apalachicola520151992
Oak Grove 2520172017
Bristol520231988
Laurel Hill420242010
Mt. Olive420242012
Callahan420241992
Blountstown320231966
Betts320221987
Miccosukee220241968
Covington220191994
Belmont220241977
Micanopy219901986
Doctors Inlet 2220182017
Goethe220242012
Eglin A.F.B.220111995
Ft Mccoy220131992
Oak Grove120101972
Ft Waltn Bch120112005
Mossy Head120111966
Broad Branch120241973
Seminole Hls119981986
Telogia119851968

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradogeorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.