BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Texas has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Texas: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.67 (95% range 0.41–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.67 (95% range 0.41–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.380.89
20260.640.390.90
20270.650.400.90
20280.660.410.91
20290.670.410.92

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pantex1220232000
Catarina1119981998
Rock Island920241969
Liberty Hill920231972
Greenville920152014
Dallas820242014
Oyster Lake820231995
Weatherford720242007
Girard720231994
Cottonwood620241989
Childress620241971
Tenmile620232009
Danbury520242005
Moon Lake 2520222014
Olney420241970
Channing420101967
Booker420241975
Hearne420212018
Beaver Creek420241998
Dougherty420221996
Shields 2420222017
Stowell320221993
Lydia320231987
Sadler320241999
Moon Lake320051994

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseevirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.