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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Texas

All statesBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Texas has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+129%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Texas: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Texas is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.99 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.43–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Texas is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.99 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.43–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.400.93
20270.680.410.94
20280.680.420.95
20290.690.430.96
20300.700.430.97

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty Hill3820251972
Dallas1920252014
Pantex1220232000
Catarina1119981998
Mt. Selman1020252010
Greenville920152014
Weatherford820252007
Booker820251975
Tenmile620232009
Oak Grove 2520252004
Weches520252003
Megargel520251995
Moon Lake 2520222014
Rhome420252006
Olney420241970
Channing420101967
Fred420252009
Dougherty420221996
Shields 2420222017
Stowell320221993
Cottonwood320251989
Moon Lake320051994
Yoakum320222022
Decatur320211996
Beaver Creek320251998

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseevirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.