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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Kansas has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Kansas: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Kansas is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Kansas is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.000.86
20260.400.000.86
20270.400.000.86
20280.400.000.86
20290.400.000.86

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wellington1820241980
Missler1420181975
Lincolnville420222022
Ashland320211969
Lakin320221972
Plymell320212021
Dalton220241984
Coldwater220221969
Albert219831969
Covert219891989
Rexford220172017
St John120151967
Coats120241971
Olathe120162008
Wreford120222015
Ellinor120241993
Buckeye120022002
Kanopolis120181978
Gray120191970
Logan119801980
Gove120151978
Hopewell120182010
Hodges120022002
Ash Valley120172000

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.