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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Alabama

All statesBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Alabama has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

25×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mississippi Kite in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Alabama is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.07–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Alabama is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.07–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.030.92
20270.480.040.93
20280.490.050.93
20290.500.060.94
20300.510.070.95

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Talladega6920252019
Choccolocco520232023
Mclellan420241977
Gainestown Ferry420151999
Latham 2320222007
Greensport320252017
Howard320252008
Wallsboro320211984
South320251981
Georgetown320251994
Sunny Eve220192019
Mt Olive219961990
Warrior Std220252025
Lanett220221984
Grangeburg220231973
Brundidge220212016
Beatrice220191984
Millry220181978
Wedgeworth220241990
Grove Hill220112006
Carrollton220251998
Mt. Gilead220252002
Madrid220231999
Gastonburg220242004
Claiborne220192002

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.