BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Alabama has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

14×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Alabama: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Alabama is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.16–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Alabama is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.16–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.140.59
20260.370.140.59
20270.370.150.60
20280.380.150.61
20290.390.160.61

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Choccolocco520232023
Greensport420242017
Greensboro420222012
Mclellan420241977
Georgetown420131994
Gainestown Ferry420151999
Latham 2320222007
Wallsboro320211984
Sunny Eve220192019
Mt Olive219961990
Lanett220221984
Grangeburg220231973
Brundidge220212016
South220231981
Beatrice220191984
Millry220181978
Wedgeworth220241990
Grove Hill220112006
Madrid220231999
Talladega220242019
Gastonburg220242004
Claiborne220192002
Helicon220231999
Sprott-Cahaba Riv220141999
Smyer Lake120232009

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.