BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in South Carolina has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1988.

15×Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in South Carolina: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in South Carolina is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.28–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in South Carolina is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.28–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.211.3
20260.750.231.3
20270.770.241.3
20280.790.261.3
20290.810.281.3

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walterboro720171997
Bennettsville720172008
Coward620241993
Hardeeville520241970
New Ellenton420242018
Kiawah Island320242000
Dale320242006
Adams Run320211991
Wagener220241997
Dillon220211996
Bishopville220231998
Carvers Bay220121999
Red Bluff220242006
Jamestown120141992
Rome120231988
Holly Hill120242010
Foreston120061991
New Holland120242018
Sandhills119981998
Salem Xrd119971997
Whitmire120222022
Mount Pisgah120022002
Olar120192006
Pinewood120172017
Nixville120142003

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.