BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Arkansas has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+183%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Arkansas: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Arkansas is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.26–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Arkansas is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.26–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.840.201.5
20260.860.221.5
20270.870.231.5
20280.890.251.5
20290.900.261.5

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
England5120232015
South Bend920221967
Saffell720181994
Lockesburg620192010
Poyen420061984
Stark420232021
Coal Hill420222008
Maynard420241996
Hickory Ridge320102010
Gillett320242011
Springhill320222010
Nance320242002
Old Milo220142009
Locust Bayou220232023
Ashdown220231967
Crowley'S Ridge220242011
Zion220182018
Havana220212015
Stephens220222012
Princeton 2220222022
Princeton220212000
Eudora120241968
Stamps120231970
Hope120101968
Hughes120231968

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.