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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Louisiana has surged: up 701% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+701%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Louisiana: up 701% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Louisiana is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.5–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Louisiana is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.5–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.42.34.6
20273.52.34.7
20283.62.44.7
20293.62.44.8
20303.72.54.9

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baton Rouge2020251995
Glencoe1420181989
Kraemer1120251997
Belair920251991
Goodwill820252005
Carlisle719881987
Keystone720131996
Norwood720252004
Bickham620252000
Lafitte519911967
Larose519921990
Gibson520192001
Berwick520181987
Burr Ferry520252012
Roseland420241988
Mer Rouge420081970
Brousville420252009
Gonzales420191999
Ville Platte420192008
Ivan 2420252014
Freetown320191967
Shaw320241972
Longstreet320251992
Ramah320251988
Kaplan320212007

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckymarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.