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Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Illinois

All statesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Illinois has surged: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+348%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Illinois: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Illinois is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Illinois is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.010.14
20260.080.010.14
20270.080.010.14
20280.080.010.15
20290.080.010.15

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Camp Point420242019
Belleview420212021
Sandusky320232000
Belknap220232005
Karnak220232018
St Morgan120212021
Dudleyville120052005
Olney120132013
Pulaski120241990
Bremen120231975
Delwood120172017

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.