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Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Illinois

All statesBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Illinois has surged: up 420% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+420%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mississippi Kite in Illinois. See the full index history below.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Illinois is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.02–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Illinois is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.02–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.010.17
20270.090.010.17
20280.090.020.17
20290.100.020.17
20300.100.020.17

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pulaski920251990
Belleview420212021
Sandusky320232000
Belknap220252005
Karnak220232018
Royalton120252025
Camp Point120252019
Columbia120252025
St Morgan120212021
Dudleyville120052005
Olney120132013
Bremen120231975
Delwood120172017

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.