BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Tennessee has surged: up 28× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

28×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mississippi Kite in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Tennessee is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Tennessee is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.000.73
20270.350.000.74
20280.360.000.75
20290.370.000.76
20300.380.000.77

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt920252005
Pawpaw 2620252013
Moscow320252016
Mansfield220251981
Tiptonville120151977
Pawpaw120111970
Brownsville120182005
Whiteville120252006
Big Sandy120242014
Sweetlips120182011
Silerton120241976
Trenton120212021
Trace Collinwood120152015
Jasper120092009

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.