BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Tennessee has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

19×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Tennessee: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Tennessee is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Tennessee is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.57
20260.270.000.58
20270.280.000.58
20280.280.000.59
20290.290.000.60

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield1220241981
Moscow320232016
Whiteville220232006
Humboldt220242005
Pawpaw 2220232013
Tiptonville120151977
Pawpaw120111970
Brownsville120182005
Big Sandy120242014
Sweetlips120182011
Silerton120241976
Trenton120212021
Trace Collinwood120152015
Jasper120092009

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.