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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Virginia has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+56%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has risen sharply in Virginia: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Virginia is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Virginia is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.10
20260.050.000.10
20270.050.000.10
20280.050.000.10
20290.050.000.10

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dismal Swamp520021994
Newsoms420241979
Taylorstown 2120242024
Irisburg120212021
Branchville119931991
Pungo120242024
Sharps120152015

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.