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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Virginia

All statesBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Virginia has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+56%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mississippi Kite in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Virginia is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Virginia is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.10
20260.050.000.10
20270.050.000.10
20280.050.000.10
20290.050.000.10

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dismal Swamp520021994
Newsoms420241979
Taylorstown 2120242024
Irisburg120212021
Branchville119931991
Pungo120242024
Sharps120152015

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.