BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in North Carolina has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

11×Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mississippi Kite Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in North Carolina: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Mississippi Kite Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in North Carolina is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.23–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in North Carolina is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.23–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.180.59
20260.400.190.60
20270.410.200.61
20280.420.210.63
20290.430.230.64

Mississippi Kite Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bethel1320242011
Jamesville1220222003
Myrtle Grove420242021
Maple Hill420232016
Hamlet420241996
Wards Corner320242011
Rheasville320172012
Genoa320242012
Dortches320241994
Speed220241990
Cayton220232011
Montague220242010
Supply220242011
Hallsboro120192015
Broad Creek120242017
Kinston120192012
Oakboro120232023
Washington120212021
Gupton120242007
Old Trap120162016
Jones Corner120242012
Dudley120192002
Congleton120182017
Lake Surf120242024
Belgrade120172017

Mississippi Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradofloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-mexicooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.