BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 268% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+268%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 268% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mississippi Kite In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 100% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.5–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 100% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.5–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.02.25.7
20274.02.35.8
20284.12.45.8
20294.22.45.9
20304.22.56.0

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baton RougeLOUISIANA202025
KraemerLOUISIANA112025
BelairLOUISIANA92025
SaffellARKANSAS72018
CarlisleLOUISIANA71988
KeystoneLOUISIANA72013
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE62025
LaroseLOUISIANA51992
GibsonLOUISIANA52019
BerwickLOUISIANA52018
MaynardARKANSAS42024
RoselandLOUISIANA42024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA42025
GonzalesLOUISIANA42019
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS32010
FreetownLOUISIANA32019
ShawLOUISIANA32024
RamahLOUISIANA32025
Morgan CityLOUISIANA32022
River RoadLOUISIANA32025
HughesARKANSAS22025
EnglandARKANSAS22025
WilsonARKANSAS22025
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22024
Port AllenLOUISIANA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.