BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+287%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mississippi Kite In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.6–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.6–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.02.45.7
20264.12.45.8
20274.22.55.8
20284.22.65.9
20294.32.66.0

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EnglandARKANSAS512023
Baton RougeLOUISIANA272024
KraemerLOUISIANA102024
South BendARKANSAS92022
BelairLOUISIANA92024
SaffellARKANSAS72018
CarlisleLOUISIANA71988
KeystoneLOUISIANA72013
RamahLOUISIANA72024
River RoadLOUISIANA62024
LaroseLOUISIANA51992
GibsonLOUISIANA52019
BrousvilleLOUISIANA52024
BerwickLOUISIANA52018
MaynardARKANSAS42024
RoselandLOUISIANA42024
GonzalesLOUISIANA42019
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI42024
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS32010
GillettARKANSAS32024
FreetownLOUISIANA32019
ShawLOUISIANA32024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA32022
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI32024
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.