BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mississippi Kite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.48–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.48–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.532.3
20261.40.522.3
20271.40.502.2
20281.40.492.2
20291.30.482.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChesterOKLAHOMA301988
ReedOKLAHOMA282019
HollisOKLAHOMA242024
WellingtonKANSAS182024
MisslerKANSAS142018
CashionOKLAHOMA122024
ElginOKLAHOMA122016
GirardTEXAS72023
GrimesOKLAHOMA62024
ChildressTEXAS62024
VerdenOKLAHOMA52017
ErickOKLAHOMA52024
TegardenOKLAHOMA42016
BookerTEXAS42024
Beaver CreekTEXAS42024
Shields 2TEXAS42022
AshlandKANSAS32021
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA32010
DaltonKANSAS22024
ColdwaterKANSAS22022
AlbertKANSAS21983
CovertKANSAS21989
RexfordKANSAS22017
CookietownOKLAHOMA22006
RosstonOKLAHOMA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.