BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

21×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mississippi Kite In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.62–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.62–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.531.6
20271.10.551.6
20281.10.581.6
20291.10.601.6
20301.10.621.7

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty HillTEXAS382025
Mt. SelmanTEXAS102025
GoodwillLOUISIANA82025
LockesburgARKANSAS62019
Burr FerryLOUISIANA52025
WechesTEXAS52025
PoyenARKANSAS42006
StarkARKANSAS42023
Coal HillARKANSAS42022
Mer RougeLOUISIANA42008
Ivan 2LOUISIANA42025
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA42021
FredTEXAS42025
SpringhillARKANSAS32022
LongstreetLOUISIANA32025
Mount UnionLOUISIANA32025
WomackLOUISIANA32025
Fort JessupLOUISIANA32023
IvanLOUISIANA32013
NatchezLOUISIANA32025
Big CedarOKLAHOMA32019
PhillipsOKLAHOMA32025
Old MiloARKANSAS22014
Locust BayouARKANSAS22023
AshdownARKANSAS22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.