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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

15×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mississippi Kite In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.63–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.63–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.930.551.3
20260.950.571.3
20270.970.591.3
20280.990.611.4
20291.00.631.4

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty HillTEXAS92023
LockesburgARKANSAS62019
LongstreetLOUISIANA62024
PoyenARKANSAS42006
StarkARKANSAS42023
Coal HillARKANSAS42022
Mer RougeLOUISIANA42008
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA42021
SpringhillARKANSAS32022
NanceARKANSAS32024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA32024
Fort JessupLOUISIANA32023
IvanLOUISIANA32013
NatchezLOUISIANA32024
Big CedarOKLAHOMA32019
PhillipsOKLAHOMA32006
IndianolaOKLAHOMA32019
Old MiloARKANSAS22014
Locust BayouARKANSAS22023
AshdownARKANSAS22023
HavanaARKANSAS22021
StephensARKANSAS22022
PrincetonARKANSAS22021
Princeton 2ARKANSAS22022
CypressLOUISIANA21982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.