BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 526% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+526%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 526% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.91 (95% range 0.31–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.91 (95% range 0.31–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.850.261.4
20260.860.271.5
20270.880.281.5
20280.890.301.5
20290.910.311.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlencoeLOUISIANA142018
Rock IslandTEXAS92024
Oyster LakeTEXAS82023
LafitteLOUISIANA51991
DanburyTEXAS52024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS52022
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA42019
KaplanLOUISIANA32021
StowellTEXAS32022
Moon LakeTEXAS32005
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
MauriceLOUISIANA22024
Port AcresTEXAS22024
JuniorLOUISIANA11988
EstherLOUISIANA12024
RichardLOUISIANA12023
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12019
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12021
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12018
Hinkles FerTEXAS12024
WinnieTEXAS12023
KatyTEXAS12024
ChinquapinTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.