BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 414% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+414%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 414% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Mississippi Kite In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 95% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.29–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 95% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.29–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.830.231.4
20270.850.251.4
20280.860.261.5
20290.870.281.5
20300.890.291.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlencoeLOUISIANA142018
LafitteLOUISIANA51991
Moon Lake 2TEXAS52022
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA42019
KaplanLOUISIANA32021
StowellTEXAS32022
Moon LakeTEXAS32005
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
EstherLOUISIANA22025
MauriceLOUISIANA22024
DanburyTEXAS22025
Rock IslandTEXAS22025
Port AcresTEXAS22024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS22025
JuniorLOUISIANA11988
RichardLOUISIANA12023
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12019
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12021
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12025
Hinkles FerTEXAS12024
WinnieTEXAS12023
KatyTEXAS12024
ChinquapinTEXAS12023
Oyster LakeTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.