BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

20×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
272Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mississippi Kite In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.55–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.55–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.770.491.1
20270.790.501.1
20280.800.521.1
20290.820.531.1
20300.830.551.1

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA192022
BethelNORTH-CAROLINA132024
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA92025
HumboldtTENNESSEE92025
Red BluffSOUTH-CAROLINA82025
PittsGEORGIA72025
DoverGEORGIA72025
NorwoodLOUISIANA72025
Water ValleyMISSISSIPPI72018
BennettsvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA72017
BickhamLOUISIANA62025
BristolFLORIDA52023
ApalachicolaFLORIDA52015
Everett CityGEORGIA52019
GuytonGEORGIA51993
UnionGEORGIA52024
CyburMISSISSIPPI52019
HardeevilleSOUTH-CAROLINA52024
WardSOUTH-CAROLINA52025
Adams RunSOUTH-CAROLINA52025
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA52002
MclellanALABAMA42024
Gainestown FerryALABAMA42015
HilliardFLORIDA42025
CallahanFLORIDA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.