BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

19×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
266Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.98 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.52–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.98 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.52–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.460.99
20260.740.471.0
20270.760.491.0
20280.770.501.0
20290.780.521.1

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA192022
BethelNORTH-CAROLINA132024
Dowling ParkFLORIDA122019
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA122022
MansfieldTENNESSEE122024
HilliardFLORIDA102024
BickhamLOUISIANA72023
Water ValleyMISSISSIPPI72018
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA72017
BennettsvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA72017
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA62024
Oak Grove 2FLORIDA52017
BristolFLORIDA52023
ApalachicolaFLORIDA52015
Everett CityGEORGIA52019
GuytonGEORGIA51993
DoverGEORGIA52024
OusleyGEORGIA52024
CyburMISSISSIPPI52019
HardeevilleSOUTH-CAROLINA52024
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA52002
GreensboroALABAMA42022
MclellanALABAMA42024
GeorgetownALABAMA42013
Gainestown FerryALABAMA42015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.