BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 451% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+451%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 451% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Mississippi Kite In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.03–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.03–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.020.13
20260.080.030.14
20270.080.030.14
20280.080.030.14
20290.090.030.14

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SanduskyILLINOIS32023
DiamondMISSOURI32024
ZionARKANSAS22018
BelknapILLINOIS22023
KarnakILLINOIS22023
PulaskiMISSOURI22019
WhitewaterMISSOURI22024
RupertARKANSAS12019
AvocaARKANSAS11994
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS12015
RussellARKANSAS12021
PulaskiILLINOIS12024
BremenILLINOIS12023
DelwoodILLINOIS12017
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY11978
RiverqueenKENTUCKY12022
CascadeMISSOURI12021
WilliamsvillMISSOURI12013
BaronOKLAHOMA12023
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.