BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 615% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+615%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mississippi Kite in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Mississippi Kite In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.020.16
20270.100.030.16
20280.100.030.17
20290.100.030.17
20300.100.030.17

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PulaskiILLINOIS92025
DiamondMISSOURI42025
SanduskyILLINOIS32023
ZionARKANSAS22025
BelknapILLINOIS22025
KarnakILLINOIS22023
PulaskiMISSOURI22019
WhitewaterMISSOURI22024
RupertARKANSAS12019
AvocaARKANSAS11994
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS12015
RussellARKANSAS12021
BremenILLINOIS12023
DelwoodILLINOIS12017
RoyaltonILLINOIS12025
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY11978
RiverqueenKENTUCKY12022
CascadeMISSOURI12021
WilliamsvillMISSOURI12013
RichlandMISSOURI12025
BaronOKLAHOMA12023
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.