BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mississippi Kite In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Mississippi Kite in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 676% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+676%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 676% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Mississippi Kite In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.73–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.73–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.73–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.661.3
20261.00.681.4
20271.00.701.4
20281.10.721.4
20291.10.731.4

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreenvilleTEXAS92015
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA82009
DallasTEXAS82024
WeatherfordTEXAS72024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA62024
CottonwoodTEXAS62024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA42018
OlneyTEXAS42024
HearneTEXAS42021
BeggsOKLAHOMA32023
TatumsOKLAHOMA32024
LydiaTEXAS32023
SadlerTEXAS32024
Mount ZionTEXAS32021
YoakumTEXAS32022
DecaturTEXAS32021
NobleOKLAHOMA22024
Glen RoseTEXAS22024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS22019
LocoOKLAHOMA11984
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12022
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12005
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024
DuncanOKLAHOMA12024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.