BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mississippi Kite In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesBirds of prey

Mississippi Kite in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

11×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mississippi Kite has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Mississippi Kite In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.76–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mississippi Kite in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.76–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.671.5
20271.10.691.5
20281.10.711.6
20291.20.731.6
20301.20.761.6

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Mississippi Kite in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DallasTEXAS192025
NobleOKLAHOMA92025
GreenvilleTEXAS92015
WeatherfordTEXAS82025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA72025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA52025
TatumsOKLAHOMA52025
DuncanOKLAHOMA52025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS52025
MegargelTEXAS52025
RhomeTEXAS42025
OlneyTEXAS42024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA32025
BeggsOKLAHOMA32023
CottonwoodTEXAS32025
YoakumTEXAS32022
DecaturTEXAS32021
SeldenTEXAS22025
Mount ZionTEXAS22025
BurtonTEXAS22025
Whit Mtn.TEXAS22019
PaigeTEXAS22025
LocoOKLAHOMA11984
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12022
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.